Commodity trading giant Trafigura said the conflict in the Middle East has already removed more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil from global markets, warning that even a near term peace agreement would not quickly restore energy supplies disrupted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In its half year financial report released Thursday, the Singapore based trader called the current disruption the largest energy crisis in history and estimated supply losses at roughly 14 million barrels per day compared with pre conflict levels.
Without the alternative pipelines and export routes now being used to bypass the strait, Trafigura said losses would exceed 20 million barrels per day. Shipping volumes through Hormuz remain close to zero due to the threat of attacks on vessels, while oil production, refined product exports, and LNG shipments have all been sharply curtailed. Qatar, which accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG production, has been unable to export at normal levels through the crisis.
The disruption has driven energy prices sharply higher. Brent crude and diesel sit roughly 60% above pre war levels, retail gasoline is up more than 50%, jet fuel more than 70%, and European natural gas about 60%. Chief Economist Saad Rahim said elevated inventories, strategic petroleum reserve releases, floating cargoes already at sea, and demand destruction across Asia and Africa have temporarily shielded markets from the full impact, but those buffers are fading fast, with U.S. gasoline stocks already at levels typically not seen until late summer.
Trafigura also reported one of the strongest financial performances in its history, posting net profit of $4.1 billion for the six months ended March 31, nearly triple the $1.5 billion earned a year earlier. CEO Richard Holtum said periods of disruption reinforce the role of commodity traders, with results driven by the complexity and cost of delivering supply solutions rather than by elevated prices alone.
For the shipping industry, the assessment reinforces a growing consensus that reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be only the first step toward restoring normal trade flows. Even after a ceasefire, depleted inventories, disrupted logistics chains, vessel repositioning challenges, and constrained energy production could continue to weigh on tanker, LNG, and broader commodity markets for months.