Project economics are weighing on new offshore wind investment, according to a TGS | 4C report published on 21 September.[7] Only 2.1 GW has reached final investment decision so far in 2026, compared with more than 12 GW expected to enter operation this year.[7] The firm forecasts that investment decisions will reach 5.6 GW by December, which would make 2026 the second lowest year for those commitments since 2020.[7]
The gap is not a shortage of projects under construction.[7] TGS | 4C puts global operating capacity at about 92.7 GW, with another 41.2 GW under construction.[7] It expects projects totalling 22.2 GW to receive final consent during 2026, but says developers remain cautious about committing capital.[7]
Financing costs are a particular obstacle.[7] The report says long term borrowing costs in the UK, US and euro area remain around their highest levels in 15 years.[7] TGS | 4C estimates that a one percentage point increase in the cost of capital can raise an offshore wind project's levelised cost of electricity by roughly 9 to 11 percent.[7]
The report also forecasts installation of about 19,400 offshore wind foundations worldwide between 2026 and 2040.[7] Monopiles remain the preferred type, while floating foundations are expected to account for 11 percent of demand.[7] In Europe, TGS | 4C considers a structural supply shortage unlikely given available monopile and jacket manufacturing capacity.[7]
Sources: [7] https://www.tgs.com/press-releases/offshore-winds-2026-pipeline-reveals-a-widening-gap-between-construction-and-new-investment