Russia is exporting the most crude since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with year to date shipments running at 3.46 million barrels a day, roughly 120,000 barrels above 2025 and above every annual average since the war began. Four week average crude shipments hit 3.64 million barrels a day in the period to May 31, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
The surge follows record Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries in May that sent processing to a 16 year low and pushed Moscow to ban jet fuel exports on top of an earlier halt on gasoline sales abroad. With less crude being absorbed by domestic refineries, more barrels are freed up for the global market at exactly the moment buyers are scrambling for alternative supply.
The pricing backdrop has handed the Kremlin an unexpected windfall. Global benchmarks have spiked since US and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February prompted Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 15 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf flows with only about a third diverted elsewhere. The four week gross value of Russian exports came in at $2.24 billion a week in the 28 days to May 31, near levels not seen since the opening months of the Ukraine war.
India has reemerged as the swing buyer. After purchases briefly fell to about 1 million barrels a day as Washington tightened sanctions, the Trump administration eased restrictions on Russian crude once Hormuz closed, lifting Indian deliveries to roughly 1.76 million barrels a day in May, 63% above February. Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports averaged 1.03 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 31.
For shipping, the implications run beyond price. The amount of Russian oil at sea has climbed to 124 million barrels, up about 25% from a mid April low, and 1.77 million barrels a day is moving on vessels yet to declare a final destination. That suggests the shadow fleet remains fully deployed, that interim signaling at Suez and Port Said is masking real delivery points, and that any easing of Hormuz risk would still leave a structurally larger Russian seaborne flow than the market has priced in.