OPEC+ is poised to agree a fourth consecutive monthly increase in oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday, with seven core members expected to raise quotas by roughly 188,000 barrels per day from July, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The hike matches the June increase and continues a steady push to lift paper quotas even as actual barrels remain stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz.
The seven producers due to meet are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. The United Arab Emirates, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries earlier this year after almost 60 years of membership, is no longer part of the group setting output policy. A wider OPEC+ ministerial meeting is also on the calendar for Sunday but is not expected to alter group wide policy.
The numbers tell the story of the disconnect. The seven members have raised their combined quotas by close to 600,000 barrels per day across April, May, and June. Yet group production averaged 33.19 million barrels per day in April against 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures, a collapse driven by export cuts at Gulf members who have not been able to supply customers in full since late February.
The trigger remains the U.S. war with Iran, which has cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz and produced what the cartel describes as the largest supply crisis in oil market history. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers are now reliant on workarounds such as the new ADNOC pipeline bypassing Hormuz, reported this week as 50% complete, to move any meaningful incremental volume.
For traders, refiners, and tanker owners the July hike is largely a signal rather than a supply event. Higher quotas position the group to flood the market the moment Hormuz reopens, but until then the physical balance stays tight, freight rates on alternate routes stay elevated, and Brent stays sensitive to every headline out of the Gulf.