Rystad Energy has put a number on the destruction: at least $25 billion in damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, with that figure expected to rise as assessments continue. The estimate covers refineries, fuel terminals, gas-to-liquids facilities, and offshore assets across Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran.
The most consequential damage is concentrated at two sites. Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG complex, lost LNG trains S4 and S6, cutting capacity by 17%, or roughly 12.8 million tonnes per annum. Full recovery is projected at up to five years, constrained by global backlogs in large-frame gas turbines needed for LNG refrigeration compressors. Iran's South Pars offshore gas field has also sustained significant damage, compounding the supply shock.
Separately, maritime data firm Veson Nautical estimated that 1,440 offshore support vessels, 432 offshore construction vessels, and 156 jackup rigs, representing 19%, 18%, and 27% of their respective global fleets, are currently stranded in the Gulf with no clear timeline for resumption. The knock-on effect is already tightening OSV and OCV supply in West Africa, Brazil, and the North Sea, where Brent above $100 is making previously marginal projects economically viable again.