Three very large crude carriers transited the Strait of Hormuz outbound on Wednesday in what maritime intelligence firm Windward described as the strongest single indicator yet of a coordinated operating protocol on the corridor. It was the first sign in almost 12 weeks that some form of guided passage may be resuming through the chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of seaborne oil.
Two Chinese controlled vessels exited in a synchronised pair, travelling in tight 5 to 10 km formation with AIS transmitting openly, carrying Iraqi and Qatari crude bound for Quanzhou and Ningbo. A third ship, a South Korean flagged VLCC carrying Kuwaiti crude for Ulsan and Onsan, transited in the same window but outside the Chinese formation and ran with its AIS dark.
Windward assessed the open AIS transmission as potentially indicating a tacit operational understanding between Washington and Beijing that Chinese lifts of Iraqi and Qatari crude are not primary enforcement targets under the current US posture. Oslo shipbroker Fearnleys confirmed the movements and added that Eastmed's Grand Lady was transiting inbound to load inside the Gulf, telling clients that, combined with reports of a US Iran deal getting close, the picture could slowly move toward a resolution.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy claimed 26 commercial vessels including oil tankers and container ships had transited the strait over the previous 24 hours in coordination with Iranian authorities. Tehran also said it is seeking a mechanism with Oman to ensure sustainable security in the Strait, while a self-declared Persian Gulf Strait Authority published the clearest geographic definition yet of the zone it claims to supervise, stretching from Kuh Mobarak and south of Fujairah in the east to Qeshm Island and Umm al Qaiwain in the west.
US forces are still enforcing the blockade. CENTCOM said marines boarded the Iranian flagged tanker Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel was suspected of attempting to violate the blockade, and officials say more than 90 commercial ships near Iranian ports have been redirected. BIMCO, INTERTANKO, OCIMF and the International Chamber of Shipping issued joint guidance warning that conditions inside Hormuz remain dangerous even when the waterway looks open, citing GNSS jamming and spoofing, AIS manipulation, mines, drones, unmanned surface vessel attacks, and the risk of extreme congestion if vessels rush through after months of delays.