This bucket F corporate story centers on ExxonMobil's warning that Tengiz is nearing peak output and could decline sharply over the coming decade. The company tied that outlook to a possible multibillion dollar investment at Kashagan, where new production could offset part of the fall. Bloomberg reviewed part of the company presentation delivered to authorities in Astana.
Tengiz output is expected to plateau next year, then fall about 40 percent from its high to roughly 500,000 barrels a day by 2035, according to the presentation. Chevron is the largest shareholder in Tengiz, and Tengizchevroil operates the field. Chevron and the operator said they remain focused on safe and reliable operations but declined to discuss future output plans.
ExxonMobil has linked a potential $80 billion expansion at Kashagan to resolving Kazakhstan's long running $150 billion dispute with international operators and a $5 billion environmental fine. The proposal would form an equal venture with KazMunayGas to develop the western part of the reservoir. Bloomberg said that area could produce as much as 600,000 barrels a day, while KazMunayGas disputes the reporting.
The Tengiz forecast assumes no large new investments to sustain production, and people familiar with the presentation said that may not reflect the final outcome. Even so, the figures show why Kashagan has become central to Kazakhstan's effort to preserve national output. The investment terms and legal disputes will influence whether replacement barrels arrive before Tengiz enters a steeper decline.