The European Commission is preparing to propose that the G7 price cap on Russian crude stay frozen at $44.10 a barrel when the bloc reviews it in July, according to EU diplomats briefed over the weekend. The idea was floated to European Union envoys as a possible element of the Commission's forthcoming 21st sanctions package against Russia for its war in Ukraine.
The G7 and its allies, with the exception of the United States, agreed last year to move to a flexible cap that would track average market prices. The level was cut from $60 to $47.60 and then trimmed again in January to $44.10. The cap was originally set in late 2022 to squeeze Kremlin revenue without choking off supply, and it allows third countries to keep buying Russian oil using Western shipping and insurance as long as the price stays under the ceiling.
About 30% of seaborne Russian crude still moves under the cap. The rest is carried by the shadow fleet of older tankers operating outside Western services, a fleet that has grown sharply since the war began and that European navies have started intercepting in the Atlantic and Baltic. Moscow has had some budgetary breathing room since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that once carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade.
The Commission may also propose that any future revision of the cap cannot exceed $60 a barrel regardless of where average prices settle, the sources said, given expectations of sustained high prices through the rest of the year. Brent futures were trading near $93 a barrel on Monday, and analysts have raised their 2026 average forecast by roughly 40% to about $90 since February.
The freeze would land as a compromise after a more aggressive option, a full ban on Western maritime services for Russian oil, stalled. EU countries adopted the legal basis for that ban in the previous sanctions package but tied any phase in to further coordination with the G7. Holding the cap at $44 keeps pressure on Moscow without forcing that fight, and signals to traders, shipowners, and insurers that the existing framework will stay in place at least through the summer.