Container shipping's market balance could weaken in 2027 as new vessels enter service faster than demand grows, according to BIMCO's September outlook.[9] The association expects supply to outpace demand whether the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or returns to normal traffic.[9]
The global containership fleet has passed 34 million twenty foot equivalent units, or TEU, after adding 10 million TEU in five and a half years.[9] BIMCO forecasts fleet capacity growth of 4.6 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027.[9] More than 14 million TEU is on order, equivalent to about 42 percent of the existing fleet, while recycling is expected to remain limited.[9]
Cargo growth has helped absorb the additional ships so far.[9] Global container volumes rose 5.1 percent in the first seven months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, with exports from East and Southeast Asia accounting for more than half of the increase.[9] Volumes on the main outbound and regional trades grew 6.3 percent, while return trade volumes were flat.[9]
Shorter sailing routes could add further pressure by reducing the number of ships needed to move the same cargo.[9] BIMCO estimates that a gradual return to Suez Canal routes during 2027 could reduce ship demand growth by around five percentage points relative to its current forecast.[9] A full return could leave ship demand about 10 percent below the level needed if Cape of Good Hope diversions remained the preferred route.[9]
Sources: [9] https://gcaptain.com/container-shipping-faces-2027-pressure-as-huge-orderbook-hits-the-water